Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Indonesia Using Poisson Model and Spatial Grid Analysis
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Keywords:
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Earthquake Hazard, Poisson Distribution, Spatial Grid, Seismic Probability, Indonesia, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)
Abstract
Indonesia, located at the convergence of three major tectonic plates in the Pacific Ring of Fire (ROF), is highly susceptible to earthquakes. This study analyzes earthquake hazard in Indonesia using a statistical approach based on the Poisson distribution combined with spatial mapping through a 0.5o x 0.5o grid. Earthquake data from the USGS catalog (1925–2025), including time, location, depth, and magnitude, were analyzed. Annual earthquake frequencies were calculated for each grid cell with magnitude ≥ 5.0, and the probability of at least one event occurring within 10, 25, and 50 years was estimated using the Poisson probability function. Results were visualized as spatial probability risk maps for 10-, 25-, and 50-year horizons, enabling the identification of earthquake-prone areas and classification of risk levels. The findings reveal that subduction zones, particularly along the Sunda Arc, exhibit probabilities exceeding 90% for M≥ 5 events within the next 50 years, highlighting their significance for disaster preparedness. These results demonstrate that a Poisson-based statistical and spatial approach is effective for probabilistic earthquake hazard mapping and provides direct support for disaster risk reduction and spatial planning in Indonesia.
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Wesseloo, J., K. Woodward, and J. Pereira (2014). Grid-Based Analysis of Seismic Data. Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 114(10); 815–822
Akinci, A. (2010). Hazgridx: Earthquake Forecasting Model for ML ≥ 5.0 Earthquakes in Italy Based on Spatially Smoothed Seismicity. Annals of Geophysics, 53(3); 51–61
Amaro-Mellado, J. L. and D. T. Bui (2020). GIS-Based Mapping of Seismic Parameters for the Pyrenees. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 9(7); 1–21
Baker, J. W., B. A. Bradley, and P. J. Stafford (2021). Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis. Cambridge University Press
Diantari, H. C., W. Suryanto, A. Anggraini, T. M. Irnaka, P. Susilanto, and D. Ngadmanto (2018). Preliminary Magnitude of Completeness Quantification of Improved BMKG Catalog (2008–2016) in Indonesian Region. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 132; 012026
Gerstenberger, M. C., W. Marzocchi, T. Allen, M. Pagani, J. Adams, L. Danciu, E. H. Field, H. Fujiwara, N. Luco, K. F. Ma, C. Meletti, and M. D. Petersen (2020). Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis at Regional and National Scales: State of the Art and Future Challenges. Reviews of Geophysics, 58(2); 1–49
Greenhough, J. and I. G. Main (2008). A Poisson Model for Earthquake Frequency Uncertainties in Seismic Hazard Analysis. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(19); 1–8
Htwe, Y. M. M. and S. WenBin (2009). Gutenberg–Richter Recurrence Law to Seismicity Analysis of Southern Segment of the Sagaing Fault and Its Associate Components. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 38(2); 1201–1204
Hutchings, S. J. and W. D. Mooney (2021). The Seismicity of Indonesia and Tectonic Implications. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 22(9); 1–42
Kaban, P. A., R. Kurniawan, R. E. Caraka, B. Pardamean, B. Yuniarto, and Sukim (2019). Biclustering Method to Capture the Spatial Pattern and to Identify the Causes of Social Vulnerability in Indonesia: A New Recommendation for Disaster Mitigation Policy. Procedia Computer Science, 157; 31–37
Khakim, M. Y. N., T. Tsuji, Erni, A. A. Bama, F. Virgo, M. Irfan, A. K. Affandi, and T. Matsuoka (2023). Monitoring the Muara Laboh Geothermal Field in Indonesia Using the ISBAS Method with Sentinel-1 SAR Images. Science and Technology Indonesia, 8(4); 626–631
Letamo, A., B. Kavitha, and T. P. Tezeswi (2023). Unified Earthquake Catalogue and Mapping of Gutenberg–Richter Parameters for the East African Rift System. Geoenvironmental Disasters, 10(1); 19
Mandita, F., A. Ashari, M. E. Wibowo, and W. Suryanto (2025). Hybrid Time Series Methods and Machine Learning for Seismic Analysis and Volcano Eruption Predict. HighTech and Innovation Journal, 6(1); 104–122
Muthahhari, I., R. G. S. Yudhopratidino, and E. Darnila (2025). Unveiling Seismic Patterns in Kalimantan: Insights into Earthquake Events Over the Last Two Decades (2000–2024). Journal of Computation Physics and Earth Science (JoCPES), 4(2); 47–53
Ogata, Y. (2022). Prediction and Validation of Short-to-Long-Term Earthquake Probabilities in Inland Japan Using the Hierarchical Space–Time ETAS and Space–Time Poisson Process Models. Earth, Planets and Space, 74(1); 110
Parsons, T., E. L. Geist, R. Console, and R. Carluccio (2018). Characteristic Earthquake Magnitude Frequency Distributions on Faults Calculated From Consensus Data in California. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123(12); 10761–10784
Pothon, A., P. Gueguen, S. Buisine, and P. Bard (2020). Comparing Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps With ShakeMap Footprints for Indonesia. Seismological Research Letters, 91(2A); 847–858
Rajif, M. and S. Syafriani (2021). Hazard Seismic Zonation Analysis of West Sumatra Region Using Probabilistic Hazard Seismic Analysis (PHSA) Method. Pillar of Physics, 14(1); 8–17
Ramalho, M., L. Matias, M. Neres, M. M. C. Carafa, A. Carvalho, and P. Teves-Costa (2022). A Sanity Check for Earthquake Recurrence Models Used in PSHA of Slowly Deforming Regions: The Case of SW Iberia. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 22(1); 117–138
Rezaeian, S., P. M. Powers, J. Altekruse, S. K. Ahdi, M. D. Petersen, A. M. Shumway, A. D. Frankel, E. A. Wirth, J. A. Smith, M. P. Moschetti, K. B. Withers, and J. A. Herrick (2024). The 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Subduction Ground-Motion Models. Earthquake Spectra, 40(3); 1739–1786
Scheingraber, C. and M. Käser (2020). Spatial Seismic Hazard Variation and Adaptive Sampling of Portfolio Location Uncertainty in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 20(7); 1903–1918
Shrestha, N. (2021). Study of Temporal Analysis on Earthquake Data and Statistical Seismology of Nepal. International Journal of Advances in Scientific Research and Engineering, 7(1); 55–62
Socquet, A., J. Hollingsworth, E. Pathier, and M. Bouchon (2019). Evidence of Supershear During the 2018 Magnitude 7.5 Palu Earthquake From Space Geodesy. Nature Geoscience, 12(3); 192–199
United States Geological Survey (USGS) (2023). Earthquake Catalog (1925–2025). https://earthquake.usgs.gov/
Usman, F., Nanda, and J. T. S. Sumantyo (2022). Prediction of Ground Surface Deformation Induced by Earthquake on Urban Area Using Machine Learning. Science and Technology Indonesia, 7(4); 435–442
Wesseloo, J., K. Woodward, and J. Pereira (2014). Grid-Based Analysis of Seismic Data. Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 114(10); 815–822
Authors
Hartati, Effendie, A. R., Susyanto, N., & Suryanto, W. (2026). Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Indonesia Using Poisson Model and Spatial Grid Analysis. Science and Technology Indonesia, 11(1), 207–216. https://doi.org/10.26554/sti.2026.11.1.207-216
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.